The Log
29 August 2024: The global economy will still require some 100 million barrels of oil in 2050, according to ExxonMobil Global Outlook. But this supply level cannot be taken for granted, as global oil production is naturally declining at a rate of about 15% per year (sic!), or nearly double the IEA’s prior estimates of about 8% [more ...]
28 August 2024: Fuel regulations: Updated summaries of US Certification Fuels and EU Reference Fuels.
26 August 2024: Greenhouse gas concentrations, the global temperature across land and the ocean, and ocean heat content all reached record highs in 2023, according to the 34th annual State of the Climate report [more ...]
15 August 2024: SAE International reminds us that time is running out to register for COMVEC™—the leading commercial vehicle industry forum that will be held September 10-12, 2024 in Schaumburg, Illinois, USA. Register and secure your spot now!
14 August 2024: Chevron started oil extraction from the Anchor project in the deepwater US Gulf of Mexico—the industry-first application of high-pressure technology capable to operate at up to 20,000 psi (138 MPa) of pressure, with reservoir depths reaching 34,000 feet (10,360 m) below sea level [more ...]
7 August 2024: Fuel regulations: Added summary of European Union’s Renewable Transportation Fuel Policies.
6 August 2024: Emission standards: The summaries of Chilean emission standards and diesel fuel regulations have been updated to cover the adoption of Euro VI/US 2010-based emission requirements for heavy-duty engines, effective from 2026.
31 July 2024: The Engine Technology Forum (ETF) released a white paper titled Powering On: Internal Combustion Engines & the Clean Energy Future, contributed by yours truly, Addy Majewski (ETF press release). The paper provides a comprehensive look at this critical technology and how it competes with electric vehicles and other emerging alternatives. The paper explores the relevant technical, policy, economic and market issues, calling into question the common narrative about the imminent demise of the internal combustion engine.
23 July 2024: The Technology Guide paper on Powertrain Alternatives has been updated with expanded discussion of life cycle GHG effects of electrified vehicles.
19 July 2024: The European Union’s plan to rapidly expand its green hydrogen market is overly ambitious, according to the European Court of Auditors. The European Commission set targets for the production and import of renewable hydrogen of 10 million tonnes each by 2030. These targets were not based on a robust analysis, but were driven by political will—said the Court of Auditors. Despite 18.8 billion euros in funding, the EU will not achieve the goal of creating a 20 billion tonne market by the end of the decade, and will have to adopt more realistic targets.
18 July 2024: Fuel regulations: Updated summaries of European standards and regulations for automotive diesel fuel and biodiesel fuel.
8 July 2024: Emission standards: The updated summary of European emission standards for light-duty vehicles now covers the recently adopted Euro 7 emission standards.
5 July 2024: Oil output from the Permian Basin—which produces 45% of all US oil at present—will start to decline at some point in the not-too-distant future, according to the “The Status of U.S. Oil Production” report by Roger Blanchard. While the US oil production set an annual record of 12.927 million barrels per day (mb/d), oil output is stagnating or declining in most US oil plays—US oil output may drop by as much as 5 mb/d, or 40%, by 2033 relative to 2023. The high price of oil in 2008 led to the rapid development of tight oil in the USA, which is now being tapped out. As global oil production actually reached a maximum in 2018, there won’t be a lot of easily available oil on the global market for the United States to buy in the future, due to resource constraints and more global competition for oil from China, India and other emerging economies.
27 June 2024: Emission standards: Our summary of European emission standards for heavy-duty engines now covers the provisions of the recently adopted Euro VII regulation.
21 June 2024: Global primary energy consumption and CO2 emissions have reached a record absolute high in 2023, both up 2% year-on-year, according to the Statistical Review of World Energy by the Energy Institute (formerly BP). As a share of the overall mix, fossil fuels provided 81.5% of global primary energy, marginally down from 81.9% in the previous year [more ...]
20 June 2024: Fuel regulations: Updated summary of US and California diesel fuel regulations.
14 June 2024: A new essay by Vaclav Smil, titled Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050, evaluates the feasibility of eliminating fossil fuels to achieve net-zero carbon by 2050. Despite international agreements, government spending and regulations, and technological advancements, global fossil fuel consumption surged by 55% between 1997 and 2023 and the share of fossil fuels in global energy consumption has only decreased from 86% in 1997 to 82% in 2022. The scale of today’s energy transition requires approximately 700 EJ of new non-carbon energies by 2050, which needs about 38,000 projects the size of BC’s Site C hydro station. The energy transition imposes unprecedented demands for minerals including copper and lithium. To achieve net-zero carbon, affluent countries will incur costs of at least 20% of their annual GDP. While global cooperation is essential to achieve decarbonization by 2050, major emitters such as the United States, China, and Russia have conflicting interests. To eliminate carbon emissions by 2050, governments face unprecedented technical, economic and political challenges, making rapid and inexpensive transition impossible.
12 June 2024: The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its medium-term oil outlook, Oil 2024, predicting that global oil demand, which averaged about 102 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023, will level off near 106 million b/d by 2030 (these figures include crude oil as well as natural gas liquids and other liquids such as biofuels). The IEA is very optimistic about future oil supply capacity, which is forecast to grow to nearly 114 million b/d by 2030—a staggering 8 million b/d above projected global demand—in spite of the chilling effect such overcapacity build-up would have on oil prices and the profitability of energy companies. However, the IEA predicts that as much as 45% of the added capacity would be natural gas liquids (NGL), not crude oil itself. NGLs are short chain hydrocarbons up to pentane that are used mainly as petrochemical feedstocks.
11 June 2024: A study by the Dutch research institute TNO finds that the average levelized cost of large-scale renewable hydrogen production would be €12 to €14 per kilogram H2. The study is based on actual costs from electrolysis projects under development in the Netherlands. The largest cost components are the cost of electricity, the investment cost and associated capital cost, and the high-voltage electricity grid transport tariff. The TNO cost figures are significantly higher than other recent cost estimates, which range from around €6 to €12 per kilogram H2 as quoted by the TNO. To compete with hydrogen produced from natural gas via steam methane reforming (SMR), the cost of “green” hydrogen would have to fall to around €1-2 per kilogram.
6 June 2024: Fuel regulations: Updated summary of US biodiesel fuel standards.
Engines & Emissions | Our Credo
The internal combustion engine (ICE) has been a key prime mover that largely replaced earlier prime movers of lesser efficiency—human labor, animal work, the water wheel, the windmill, and the steam engine—thus enabling modern industrial civilization. The most efficient type of ICE, the diesel engine, has been widely used in heavy trucks, construction and agricultural machinery, rail locomotives, ships, and emergency power generation. Its gasoline counterpart has been common in passenger cars. Another related power plant, the gas turbine, has been powering commercial aviation.
For many years, engine developers have been striving to make engines cleaner. Following the three-way catalyst for gasoline engines, clean diesel technologies that enabled near-zero emissions of PM and NOx were developed and introduced in many regions of the world. The focus in technology development has then shifted to climate change and energy efficiency. The benefit of low CO2 emissions, traditionally associated with the diesel engine, is no longer sufficient to meet GHG and fuel economy regulations. New technologies are being developed—such as new combustion techniques, powertrain electrification, and waste heat recovery—that further increase the efficiency not only of the engine itself, but of the entire vehicle. Critically, as GHG emissions occur at all stages of vehicle life, from manufacture through disposal, low-carbon policies must consider life cycle effects of fuels and vehicles.
A major challenge ahead is the approaching end of the Oil Age—not only due to climate policies, but for economic reasons stemming from the depletion of easily recoverable oil resources. As fossil fuels are replaced by alternatives of lesser energetic quality, the future of mobility remains largely unknown. While the world aims to embrace more sustainable mobility, most alternative powertrain technologies depend on quantities of rare and nonrenewable natural resources, and therefore are not truly sustainable. Another often suggested approach—that of fueling the ICE by low-carbon e-fuels—suffers from low efficiency and would require substantial amounts of energy, which seems problematic in an economy that no longer has access to cheap and abundant fossil energy. All this suggests that future mobility will be based on a mix of powertrain technologies, where combustion engines continue to play an important role.